A footstep is the sound or mark that is made by someone walking each time their foot touches the ground.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Nella Fantasia
I once went to a kayaking trip off the coasts of British Columbia. There was this guy with us who liked to stand in front of the ocean every morning before we wake up and play his flute. This was one of the pieces he used to play and it was just amazing to listen to it from inside a tent:
Economic growth + Corrupt government => Unification of two forces for a cause: 1) A large mass of poor population who envy the wealthy and can be short-sighted 2) A new generation of the middle class who envision a better society but can be out of touch with reality (catalyst: an OK nod from a super power) => A revolution whose fate is determined by the share of the above forces in the new government.
مردم عزیز ایران، من از خونه گرم و نرمم در بوستون، از همه شما میخواهم که در تظاهراتهای ضدّ رژیم شرکت کنید. من خودم متاسفانه نمیتونم در کنار شما تو این تظاهراتها شرکت کنم. آخه میدونید. اگر من به ایران بیام به خاطر فعالیت هام در فیس بوک قبل شما که در خیابونها هستید، دستگیر میشم. اصلا اگر راستش را بخواهید من دیگه حتی نمیخوام تو ایران زندگی کنم ولی کلی نظر دارم که شما چه جوری باید انقلاب کنید و به شما قول میدم که از همین جا حسابی در برنامههای مجازی و تفریحی برای سرنگونی رژیم شرکت کنم.
As the uprising more or less continues in Egypt, there are wide-ranging speculations about the future of the country. Some see strong parallels between today's Egypt and Iran in 1979 and are worried that Egypt will falls into the hand of Islamists. This scenario is unlikely to happen in my opinion. Instead, I think Egypt will be taking small steps towards a more democratic state but it still be far from a real democratic state any time in the near future .
Nobody can predict the future but I am just expressing my opinion here because it is always good to review it in the future to see how my views were different from the reality. For the record, I also quote a paragraph from a Fareed Zakaria's article which conveys a similar point of view:
"I remain convinced that fears of an Egyptian theocracy are vastly overblown. Shi'ite Iran is a model for no country — certainly not a Sunni Arab society like Egypt. The nation has seen both Mubarak and Iran's mullahs and wants neither. More likely is the prospect of an "illiberal democracy," in which Egypt becomes a country with reasonably free and fair elections, but the elected majority restricts individual rights and freedoms, curtails civil society and uses the state as its instrument of power. The danger, in other words, is less Iran than Russia."